Has the Islanders power play been unlucky (or just bad)?
Advanced stats tell a surprising story; Lou at the cross roads; buyer/seller debate
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Good Morning, Islanders Country.
On Monday, we made the observation that despite the prevailing narrative that the Islanders are an improved offensive team, the team was ranked 22nd (now 23rd) in the NHL in goals-per-game (GPG), the same position they finished a season ago when Lou Lamoriello dismissed Barry Trotz in favor of Lane Lambert in an effort to revamp and ignite an offense that underachieved in 2021-22.
A number of readers made the point that the Isles have been an improved offensive team 5v5, but it’s the power play, ranked 27th (17.8%) and 3-for-their-last-45, that’s responsible for the team finding itself in the NHL’s bottom third in goal production.
That’s absolutely true when it comes to results. The Islanders have the eighth most 5-on-5 goals in the NHL (96) and are 11th in Goals Per 60 (2.62), but a closer look at advanced stats tells perhaps a more complicated story.
When we look at “Expected Goals” (or xG), which measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position, the Islanders are actually a better power-play team than they are 5v5.
Per Money Puck, the Islanders are 9th in Expected Goals For Per 60 when playing 5-on-4 at 7.51, but they are the unluckiest power-play team in the NHL with a Goals For Above Expected of -7.61. Meanwhile, the Isles are 21st in the league (2.54) in Expected Goals For Per 60 when playing 5-on-5.
When it comes to the power play, the charts say the Islanders have been more unlucky than bad this season. But perhaps luck hasn’t anything to do with it, and it’s the lack of elite skill that’s preventing them from converting on the number of quality chances their units are producing.
The root cause of this and all their offensive woes lies in their inability to finish. Despite Lambert saying they “absolutely” have enough finishers on the team, the roster is constructed with streaky scorers, all with the ability to score 20 goals and all with the tendency to run cold for a period of the season.
That’s what’s happened since the calendar turned to 2023.
If they can collectively come out of their scoring malaise at the same time, then maybe the Isles become a formidable offensive team with three strong lines, all capable of having a big night. But until we see that, each game and point lost during this ill-timed scoring drought increases their chances of remaining outside the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
Coming up, the NHL’s best arrive on Long Island as the Isles and their GM find themselves at a crossroads. Plus, buyer/seller debates have begun, “Mr. Islander” likes the loo of his bobblehead, the best win of the inaugural season, and Bobby Nystrom throws down with Mike Milbury.
Let’s dive in.
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