Good Morning, Islanders Country.
As expected, it was a slow hockey news day on Long Island, but the New York Stock Exchange was buzzing early Monday morning.
We’re all waiting to learn when the Islanders will hit the ice again for practice or a game. As of today, their next opponent is the San Jose Sharks on Thursday. With no media availability on Monday, we haven’t yet learned if any players will be returning to the lineup or what the expected timetables are for their return.
So, with the Islanders still paused, we’ll take a look at what forecasters predict for the Isles moving forward. Plus, a heat check on prospect William Dufour, Barzy’s shooting range, and a new addition to the beat is forthcoming.
Let’s dive in.
📰 NEWS: The New York Stock Exchange welcomed executives and guests of UBS (NYSE: UBS) on Monday, including Islanders’ co-owner Jon Ledecky and Sparky the Dragon, in celebration of the grand opening of the UBS Arena.
🐻 BEAR MARKET: Islanders fans familiar with Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic know that his advanced analytic models have not been too kind to the Islanders - until this year. Once again, the Isles have defied his model, but this time fans wish they hadn’t. Dom explains his seal of approval / kiss of death in his 16 key stats at the Thanksgiving holiday marker.
After a strong 2020-21 season where they were an Analytics Darling, the model finally bestowed the Islanders with the respect they long deserved with a glowing preseason recommendation.
The expectation: win the division. That looks like a pipe-dream now. “They’re a team built for the playoffs,” but the problem with that is they have to actually make it first. The Islanders are off to a rough start sitting 10 points out (!) and with a 17 percent chance at making the postseason.
But all hope is not lost. Despite playing 81 percent of their games on the road so far, the team is still above break even in the terms of expected goals. The Islanders are a team that thrives off quality over quantity and usually outscores expectations. This year they’re sitting at 46 percent of the goals. That should regress, especially as their underrated offense wakes up. Last year they scored as many goals as expected at five-on-five and were seventh in scoring chance generation. This year they’re ranked 11th, but they’re just not finishing. Their 2.11 goals-per-60 ranks 22nd this year, down from 13th last season.
The below represents the projected point total for the season. It started at 101 and now sits at 86 after the team’s 5-10-2 start.
📉 SELL-OFF: Todd Cordell in The Score was looking at Stanley Cup odds Monday, identifying the teams we should be buying and selling based on what we've seen thus far. The Islanders, as you could expect, are now a sell at +2200 (They were +1800 on November 1st)
Sure, they have a ton of home games coming up. But this team will be hard-pressed to crawl out of its early-season hole and make the playoffs, let alone make noise once it gets there.
I doubt the Islanders will fold like a tent and go quietly. But more than 20% through the season, a team 30th in points is priced as the 10th-most likely side to win the Stanley Cup. This Islanders team might finally be getting too much respect.
⏭ NEXT UP: Test results will determine whether the Islanders take the ice later this week against the San Jose Sharks on Thursdays at UBS Arena. After that, the Chicago Blackhawks are slated to visit the Islanders on Sunday night.
📊 STANDINGS:
✍️: ISLES BEAT DAMNED: The Athletic’s Arthur Staple dropped a hint to when Islander fans can expect their new beat reporter to replace him.
🎯 BARZAL BULLS-EYE: Mathew Barzal is shooting the puck from close-range this season. Perhaps that’s as a result of losing Jordan Eberle and getting Anders Lee back, whose presence in front gives Barzal the opportunity to create a rebound opportunity or simply shoot to score with Lee screening the goalie. Either way, it’s a nice change for Bazal, who many thought needed to shoot a bit more.
🍼 MOMENTUS PROSPECT: 2020 5th round pick (#152 overall) William Dufour extended his point streak to 10 games with 18 points (8G, 10A) on Saturday. The 19-year-old currently leads the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL) in goals with 18 and sits third in points with 36. He's been held pointless in just two of the Saint John Sea Dogs' 22 games this year.
Elsewhere, Alex Ljungkrantz was loaned to HC Vita Hasten of Hockey Allsvenskan, the second-tier league of professional ice hockey in Sweden after playing five games with Brynas of the Swedish Hockey League, scoring two goals in two games; and Henrik Tikkanen improved his record to 6-2-0 with two wins for MoDo of Hockey Allsvenskan. Follow @TLOMitch for the latest prospect news.
🎧 Nassaumen Hockey Podcast: Make sure to tune in tomorrow as James Nichols and Jon Zella dive into the last week of Isles hockey, the team’s pause, what to do with Robin Salo, and how the team can dig themselves out of their early-season hole.
Subscribe on YouTube | Links to listen
🔗 Isles defensemen Salo may not have spot after COVID pause, Andrew Gross, Newsday: “It’s unclear how many of their top six defensemen other than the injured Ryan Pulock the Islanders will have available whenever they resume their season after a COVID-19 outbreak. So there might no longer be an immediate spot for Robin Salo.
🔗 16 Stats: The Thanksgiving rule, the Islanders’ demise, the Leon Draisaitl start, Dom Luszczyszyn, The Athletic: “‘They’re a team built for the playoffs,’ but the problem with that is they have to actually make it first. The Islanders are off to a rough start sitting 10 points out (!) and with a 17 percent chance at making the postseason.”
And we leave you with this… On November 28, 1979, Islanders goaltender Billy Smith is given credit for a goal in their 7-4 loss to the Colorado Rockies becoming the first NHL goaltender to be credited with a goal. Including Smith, only 12 NHL netminders have managed to light the lamp and only a total of 15 goalie goals have been scored.
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