The cost of doing business
Lamoriello pays a steep price for the chance at being better today and tomorrow
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Good Morning, Islanders Country.
Early Monday evening, as you prepared yourself for a week without the Isles (sounds relaxing, right?), GM Lou Lamoriello did what so many have been asking him to do for so long - acquire a proven goal scorer.
It was always going to come at a price, and yesterday, we found out what it would be. It’s a steep one, and not just in terms of assets traded away, but the potential long-term costs if things don’t go according to Lamoriello’s plan.
Let’s first run down the details:
Islanders
Bo Horvat (31G, 23A, 49GP)
Vancouver retains 25% of the salary
Vancouver Canucks
Anthony Beauvillier (9G, 11A, 49GP)
Aatu Räty (2G, 0A, 12GP)
Protected 2023 1st round pick *Top-12 protected
2024 pick would be unprotected
Risky Business
Let’s be very clear. If the Islanders don’t extend Bo Horvat, this deal will be an abject failure. That’s the plan and the priority for Lamoriello, as he hopes he can sell Horvat on playing with Mathew Barzal, the new arena, a strong culture, etc.
For the right to do that, he’s mortgaging the future of a team currently not in playoff position, without many tradeable assets and a prospect pool that was already considered shallow before this trade.
When the deal was announced, many jumped to the assumption that an extension would soon follow. It was surely in that magical Lou drawer next to the all-but-signed Nazem Kadri contract! But we learned shortly thereafter that there were no contract negotiations prior to the trade being completed. Gulp.
"You have to give something to get something," Lamoriello said Monday. "But with the depth we have down the middle; we felt this was something that helped our hockey team. Today and tomorrow. This is a 27-year-old player."
Today and Tomorrow.
Lamoriello said that a few times during Monday’s press conference with the media.
Today and Tomorrow.
The Islanders do not make this trade just to finish 7th or 8th in the Eastern Conference. They make this trade because the ability to add a 27-year-old All-Star and pair him with Barzal, their face-of-the-franchise, for the next 7-8 years, is what they need now and for years to come.
"Whenever you make a transaction like this, you make it for a player that has character," Lamoriello said. "That knows what a team gives up. And certainly feels comfortable in the organization he's in. All of that, he'll recognize quickly, and hopefully, we'll get that done."
12 games.
There are 12 games before the March 3rd trade deadline.
The fact that Vancouver retained salary shows the Isles are positioning themselves to make further moves. If Horvat signs an extension and the team starts making up ground, you can expect Lamoriello to add.
On the other hand, if the team flounders, if extension talks stall, if a long-term relationship with Horvat isn’t in the cards, Lamoriello may have to consider making a hard pivot and flip Horvat at the deadline for something close to what they traded and sell off other pieces as well.
A scenario where the Isles are likely to miss the playoffs and Horvat decides to test free agency cannot play out. Franchise history already has Ryan Smyth leaving in free agency after 18 games and a first-round exit. Then there’s Thomas Vanek being traded for fringe prospect Sebastian Collberg after Garth Snow couldn’t convince him to play on Long Island and in Brooklyn.
Lamoriello needs a different result. He expects to get one.
What does Bo bring?
In Horvat, the Islanders have added a proven goal scorer, one that has scored 20 or more goals in each of the last six full seasons.
After a career-high 31 goals in 70 games last year, he matched that mark through 49 games in 2022-23. 11 of his 31 goals have come on the power play; the Islanders, as a team, have 23 on the season. We’ll quickly find out if the power play woes were mostly about personnel and not coaching or philosophy.
Horvat is also a captain, having worn the “C” for the Canucks since the 2019-20 season. As a center, he’ll add to the Islanders’ strength down the middle and improve them in the face-off dot.
Per the Isles press release:
Out of the 10 players in the NHL that have taken over 900 faceoffs thus far this season, Horvat is averaging a 56% win percentage, which is fourth in the league behind only Patrice Bergeron (61.2%), Anze Kopitar (57%) and Islanders forward JG Pageau (56.3%).
The price the Islanders paid
Anthony Beauvillier
It just felt it wasn’t going to happen here for Anthony Beauvillier.
Given ample opportunity to take the next step, things had run their course. The team and fanbase have been patient with Beau, but that became harder to do with his $4.15M cap hit. He’s still entering the prime of his career, so it’s quite possible that a change of scenery will lead to him finding himself back on the upward trajectory of a 20-25 goal scorer.
Via Matt Larkin, and per Natural Stat Trick, from 2017-18 through 2019-20, Beauvillier graded out as a top-four forward on the team with 0.95 goals per 60 and 7.18 shots per 60 at 5-on-5. Over the past three seasons: 0.59 goals per 60 despite generating almost as many shots at 7.16.
Beauvillier just hasn’t been able to finish with any regularity. His most consistent play came in the post-season, where he scored 14 goals and 27 points in 2020 and 2021 - including four game-winners. Beau elevated his play when it mattered the most, which made his inability to take his game to the next level during the regular season so frustrating.
Aatu Räty
The 52nd overall pick of the 2021 NHL Draft was the Islanders’ highest-rated prospect but was not projected to be a star at the NHL level.
Those that have followed him from the time he was drafted are likely a bit more bullish on his chances to be a top-six forward, and his one-time status as the projected No. 1 overall pick in the draft has always made you feel that his ceiling was higher.
The Islanders burned the first year of his ELC (who cares now, right?), and in his 12 games, he looked the part of an NHL player, even as he averaged only 8:46 TOI and was centering the fourth line.
At just 20 years old, he’s an intriguing prospect and someone the Canucks’ fanbase should be excited about. There’s little doubt in my mind he’ll be a regular NHL forward; it’s just a matter of whether or not he can become a No.2 center or better. If he does, we’ll be glad he’s playing in Western Canada.
Protected 2023 1st round pick
By making the pick top-12 protected, the Isles are all but assuring themselves a spot in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes if the season collapses. (Top 11 have a chance for the top overall pick). The Isles are currently in the 13th position.
The fact that the Islanders are outside of the playoff picture was undoubtedly attractive for the Canucks, who are either getting a mid-tier first-rounder in a very deep draft or an unprotected pick in 2024.
FINAL THOUGHTS
There’s an argument to be made that with or without Bo Horvat, the Islanders were better off getting worse to get better. And some will question whether or not they are buying too high on Horvat, who has been scoring at a pace far beyond his career numbers and is due a regression - one that already may be happening. Horvat has scored twice in his past 10 games and once in his past seven games.
All of that is in the past and, frankly, doesn’t matter anymore.
Horvat is an Islander, and he needs to stay an Islander.
If an extension happens, it likely will be an overpay at a position the Islanders are already deep at. So be it. This is what tripling-down looks like. We’ve been asking whether or not Lamoriello and ownership would entertain being sellers at the deadline and kickstart a rebuild. We got our answer. Not yet. Maybe not ever.
The Islanders made a move for the short term, thinking that it could pay off for the long term as well. Hopefully, we’ll find out in short order that it will.
⏭ NEXT UP: Bo Horvat won’t make his Isles debut until Monday, Feb. 6, when the Isles travel to Philadelphia to battle the Flyers. Face-off is at 7:00 PM ET.
📊 STANDINGS:
📚 SOUND SMART: Per NewYorkIslanders.com, Horvat was picked ninth overall by the Vancouver Canucks in the 2013 NHL Draft. The pick originally belonged to New Jersey, but then Devils GM Lou Lamoriello dealt the pick to Vancouver for goaltender Cory Schneider.
🗓 ISLES REWIND: On Jan. 31, 2013, Brad Boyes scored a PP goal with 2:59 left in overtime, giving the Islanders a 5-4 victory over the New Jersey Devils Thursday night at the Prudential Center. John Tavares tallied two goals and an assist, and Mark Streit and Keith Aucoin added one goal each for the Islanders.
🎧 Nassaumen Hockey Podcast: James and Jon sit down with the co-host of Hockey Night in New York and long-time VP of Communications for the New York Islanders, Chris Botta, to break down the Bo Horvat trade.
🔗 NHL trade grades: Bo Horvat to the New York Islanders by Greg Wyshynski, ESPN.com “Lamoriello has never shied away from making a significant deal, no matter if his team is challenging for the Stanley Cup or desperately trying to bounce over the playoff bubble, like these Islanders. The significance of this deal isn't just for the second half of the season but potentially for years to come.”
And we leave you with this…Anthony Beauvillier will always have a special place in the hearts of Islanders fans for delivering the most memorable goal for a generation.
Here’s Beau’s OT winner in Game 6 vs. Tampa Bay to close down the Nassau Coliseum.
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