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Good Morning, Islanders Country.
The game ends, the team wins, and you start refreshing the Wild Card standings in the Eastern Conference. It feels good.
But our numerous peeks at the standings have become a bit more complicated than usual due to the excessive number of games-in-hand other teams have on the Islanders. You see them in the top Wild Card spot, and you feel giddy only to be knocked down by the fact that they’ve played 4, 5, or 6 games more than the teams behind them.
The Isles are at war with The Math™
The Math™ is what makes the Isles’ position in the standings feel like a mirage - a temporary illusion that’s left you scoreboard watching, 2, 3, 4 games a night with conflicting rooting interests abound to see how much longer the Isles lead in points, but not points percentage can remain.
We’ll be doing a lot of scoreboard-watching and not Isles-watching over the next month. The team only has 14 games over the next 33 days.
Let’s get into playoff probability.
Money Puck has the Islanders’ chances at 33.4% to make the playoffs, The Athletic’s number is a bit better at 37%. At the same time, the reeling Pittsburgh Penguins, entered last night with five games in hand, and were well over 50% in both models.
Meanwhile, the playoff odds of the Detroit Red Wings, now in Wild Card position and a point ahead of Pittsburgh, was only 17.% before last night’s 4-1 win over the New York Rangers despite having played the same number of games as the Pens. Why so low? Because of The Math™!
You can read more about how the complex methodology is calculated HERE. It’s not just about how many games are left but also the likelihood of winning the games left on your schedule based on a surprisingly high number of variables. Last year, it predicted the winner of games 64% of the time.
Putting The Math™ aside, despite wins in three of their last four, which has improved the model percentages, the Isles common sense outlook to make the post-season has worsened due to the Mathew Barzal injury and the uncertain timeline for his return.
With Barzal out, the winning formula for Lane Lambert’s team has to change. The Isles injuries have been unlucky, but good teams, playoff teams find a way to make their own luck, and when the luck changes, The Math™ does too.
Coming up, next-man up isn’t just a mentality; it’s the reality for the Isles, and Darandeau is getting his shot and taking his shots. Plus, William Dufour lights the lamp twice, Brock Nelson is among the strongest at even strength, Mike Bossy scores his 50th in '79, and Giada is cooking something special at UBS Arena.
Let’s dive in.
📰 NEWS: The Islanders were off on Thursday ahead of tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Kings at UBS Arena. The Kings are coming off a deflating 4-3 OT loss to the New Jersey Devils in Newark. After Nico Hischier tied the game with 38 seconds left, Dawson Mercer, who has seven goals in five games, tipped a shot by Dougie Hamilton past Pheonix Copley for the game-winner.
In Newsday, Andrew Gross writes about the familiar next-man-up mentality that teams talk about but has become a reality for the Islanders with five regulars out of the lineup (Mathew Barzal, JG Pageau, Josh Bailey, Cal Clutterbuck, and Oliver Wahlstrom). The replacements can’t do what their injured teammates can, but what they can do is their job the best way they know how.
◾️ BEST OF OUR ABILITIES: “We’ve been doing a great job, everybody stepping in, including myself, said Hudson Fasching. “We’re trying to do our best and contribute. It’s hard to replace Barzy but we play our game to the best of our abilities and just try to find ways to get wins.”
◾️UPPING THEIR GAME: “It’s all you can do; injuries are a part of the game,” said Matt Martin. “We’re not the only team that has to go through that. The guys that have come up have done an unbelievable job. Everybody is upping their game just a little bit more to fill the void of missing so many of our key players. Now we’ve just got to keep going.”
Big things were expected for a number of Islanders call-ups this season, but Arnaud Durandeau was not necessarily one of them.
Passed over in favor of other forwards throughout the year (Holmstrom, Raty, Dufour, Bardreau, Koivula, Fasching, and Andrehoff), the 2017 sixth-round pick has done as much with his opportunity as anyone.
Through two games, a total of 28:52 minutes, the NHL newcomer has seven shots on goal on eight attempts. He is the ninth player in club history to record at least seven shots in his first two NHL games, but the first forward to do so since Patrick Flatley had a club record nine on February 29-March 3, 1984.
“Ton of skill. Really good with the puck,” Zach Parise said in NYIHockeyNow. (He’s) pretty dynamic out there, especially for his first two games. I think he’s looked really good.”
⏭ NEXT UP: The Islanders host the Los Angeles Kings on 2010’s night at UBS Arena in search of their third straight win. Puck drop is at 7:30 PM ET.
📊 STANDINGS: The Detroit Red Wings moved into the eighth seed with a 4-1 win over the Rangers, while Buffalo defeated Tampa Bay 6-5 in an OT thriller. The Oilers routed the Penguins, and the Capitals fell to the Ducks.
🏒 William Dufour, remember him? It feels like we haven’t talked about him much since his NHL cameo. Well, he scored two goals at home last night in a 5-1 win over the Belleville Senators. In his first professional season, the 21-year-old Dufour now has 18 goals in 49 games for Bridgeport. Not too shabby.
📚 SOUND SMART: Brock Nelson has four seasons with at least 20-plus even-strength goals in the last five years. Five other familiar names are the only other players to do so: Connor McDavid (5x), Auston Matthews/Brad Marchand/Alex Ovechkin/David Pastrnak (4x each).
🗓 ISLES REWIND: On Feb. 24, 1979, it was an eventful night for Mike Bossy in a 3-1 Islanders win over the Detroit Red Wings at the Nassau Coliseum. In the first period, Bossy scored his 49th and 50th goals of the season. When he scored his 49th, it was the 10th straight game with a goal for the 22-year-old, tying an NHL record. “When I got the second one, I didn't even realize it was my 50th of the season. Now there's one more goal in sight, 61 goals in a season,” said Bossy.
🎧 Islanders Never Say Die Podcast: TJ and The Grumpy Old Man talk New York Islanders and the remainder of the NHL season.
🔗 Islanders Likely Trade Deadline Scenario, 2 Depth Options by Stefen Rosner, NYIHockeyNow “Despite what may seem like the right decision for the Islanders, given how many holes in the current lineup due to injuries, Lamoriello will likely continue to show loyalty to this group and add if he can.”
🔗 Islanders fans, what are your trade proposals? A Q&A with Kevin Kurz, The Athletic “Let us know who you want and what you’re willing to give up and Kevin Kurz will weigh in on whether your idea just might work.”
And we leave you with this…proud to partner with Chef Giada De Laurentiis on elevated menu items at UBS Arena, plus a signature cocktail.
Read more about it HERE
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